There were few winners and many losers in the recent Operation Lead Cast fought in the Gaza Strip. I will list the winners and then the losers of the campaign in no particular order.
WINNERS:
Hamas – The obvious winner of the conflict. Although Hamas received heavy casualties they have managed to not only stay in power in the Strip, but increase their power. Surviving the conflict allowed then to declare victory even though the numbers by themselves show the conflict as a crushing defeat. There were well over 1000 Palestinians killed over the 3 weeks and close to two billion dollars of damage to the territories infrastructure. None of this matters to Hamas. Hamas has and will use the death toll and destruction as a rallying call further gain support amongst the Civilian population of Gaza. Hamas will also refuse to relinquish any control and therefore take responsibility for any rebuilding efforts in the strip. Finally sympathy for the plight of Gaza has given Hamas increased power in the West Bank and will most likely lead them to win more seats in the Palestinian parliament if and when another election is held.
Syria – Syria is the primary backer of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and one of the most openly anti-Israel nations. They were a major backer of Hezbollah in the second Lebanon war and once again forced Israel into an internationally unpopular war while avoiding any direct collateral damage and strengthening an additional front for Israel to be concerned with.
Iran – It is well known that Iran has been looking to increase its international strength. Iran’s backing of Hamas is another tool the Iranian government will use in an attempt to increase its negotiating power with the west. Iran is also using the campaign to gain strength with in the Middle East. Iran, a non Arab nation has managed to become a player and obtain a seat with the leaders of the Arab League.
Likud – Polls show Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud party are pulling away and likely to be able to gain a conservative coalition in the next Israeli government due to their hard-line stance towards the Palestinian situation.
LOSERS:
Egypt – Egypt is caught between a rock and a hard place. Egypt’s leadership is terrified of both Iran gaining influence in the Middle East and Muslim Brotherhood (the group in which Hamas originated from) gaining strength in Egypt. Egypt also controls the only land boarder not connected to Israel with and has sided with Israel and closed its crossing to the Gaza Strip since Hamas assumed control. The population of Egypt for the most part sides with the Palestinians and has lead to internal turmoil over Egypt not opening the crossing into Gaza. Egypt is aware that it has been used as a smuggling route for Hamas to obtain its weapons. On one hand Egypt has a peace treaty with Israel and fears extremism of groups like Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood. On the other hand Egypt has to deal with internal pressure by a population sympathetic to the Palestinians to open the Rafah Crossing. Egypt which is an extremely impoverished nation also fears opening its boarder and allowing an influx of a people even poorer than its own in.
Lebanon – Syria has held a position of strength in Lebanon for years. Hezbollah which controls the south is funded and backed by Syria and Iran. Syria’s gains are also Hezbollah’s gains which may allow them to gain grounds in the Lebanese parliament.
Innocent People of Gaza – The obvious losers were the innocent people Gaza. There are many people in the Strip, who support Hamas, and it is hard to have sympathy for them, but there are also many who do not. Who just want to live in peace and would happily see Hamas disappear and peace can be reached. The destruction to their infrastructure and loss of their lives caused by Hamas choosing to fight from populated areas shows Hamas’s indifference to all human life, not just Jewish or Israeli.
Fatah – Fatah hoped to regain control of the Gaza Strip as a result of Operation Cast Lead but the opposite has happened. Abbas’s party has been seen as attempting to regain control of Gaza on “Israeli Tanks” which has severely damaged its reputation in the West Bank and looks to possibly cause it to eventually lose control of the West Bank to Hamas.
Israel – Just looking at the damage Israel inflicted of the Gaza Strip it’s hard to see them as losers, over 1300 Palestinians lost their lives and almost two billion dollars of damage was done to its infrastructure as opposed to 13 Israeli’s who gave their lives with minimal property damage but even with those lopsided numbers Israel failed to accomplish its main goals. Hamas is still in power and has actually become stronger, Iran has gained strength, Hamas’s ability to rearm itself through tunnels into Egypt has not been eliminated and the population of southern Israel is still under constant fear of missile attack. Israel claims to have won by deterring Hamas from launch more attacks into Israel is yet to be proven.
Barack Obama – During his campaign Barack Obama suggested that he would prefer working with the Labor Party as opposed to Likud in an attempt to restart Middle East peace talks but Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party seems very likely to be the victors in next month’s Israeli elections. President Obama is aware that with Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud in control the likelihood of creating a true 2-state solution with Israel and Palestine unlikely. Netanyahu has been adamantly opposed to removing Jewish settlements from the Gaza Strip and the West Bank which seems like a necessity for the Palestinian and other Arab governments to ever agree to accepting Israel.
Gilad Shalit – For two and a half years Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier has been a prisoner of Hamas after a successful cross boarder kidnapping. Israel hopped to use a requirement of any cease fire to include the returning of Gilad. Gilad is believed to be somewhere in Gaza although this cannot be confirmed. Israel cannot even confirm if he is still alive although Hamas claims he is.
